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EUR/USD
While the 118.60-70 zone has proven to be difficult to break on the
top side, lately, the pair has been unable to go below 111.60. While
stochastics are rising in dailies, the MACD has turned flattish,
indicating a not-so-strong momentum on either side for now.
Near-term resistance comes in at around 113.55, off the downtrend
line from 118.60, followed by 50 DMA at 115.10. On the down
side, in terms of support, below 111.60—which has held on a few
occasions lately—we have 111.18, which is 38.2% retracement
from 99.08 to 118.66.
USD/JPY
A neutral outlook in the short-term, within a broad range of
1.2100-1.2800 and with 1.2500 as pivot, is crucial to guide
short-term moves. The YTD low of 1.1980 should ideally hold any
extended down-move. On the top side, the pair needs to overcome
1.2820, where the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the Brexit high to the
October flash crash low comes in.
GBP/USD
USD/INR
USD/INR is now inside the Ichimoku Cloud in weekly. The pair
has not traded below the cloud in weekly basis since October
2014. Therefore, currently, the cloud bottom at 66.7400 should
provide some support for the pair. Below that, we have a strong
support zone in the 66.3000-66.4000 range which has held quite
well in 2016. On the top side, the only meaningful resistance
is at 67.5950, where we have a flat Kinjun Sen line. With
stochastics lower, we could see the down-side support in the
66.3000 – 66.7400 zone being tested, but they could prove tough
to break on a sustainable basis.
The near-term view is for range-bound trading—with a little
downward bias. The 50% Fibo retracement of the move from
1.1298 to 1.0335, which comes in at 1.0817, has held nicely on
the top side. On the down side, we have seen the uptrend line off
1.0335 being broken. Therefore, a move down to 1.0550, which is
the Ichimoku Cloud bottom in dailies, cannot be ruled out. Also, the
MACD in dailies have turned south-ward, further strengthening a
case for a short-term bearish view.
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